Saturday, November 28, 2009

Math is hard



They can't even get the name of their lackeys right. It's Opinion Dynamics, and they're not a polling agency so much as an opinion-altering mercenary group, who appear to have issues editing English.

They also don't seem to know what they do. Under Services, Opinion Dynamics says they perform "market research" using "methods that they use":

As a consulting firm specializing in market research, over 80% of our projects involve primary quantitative or qualitative market research. Our quantitative techniques include: telephone surveys, Internet surveys, mail surveys, on-site intercepts, and in-home visits. Our qualitative techniques include: focus groups (including in-person, online, and via telephone), in-depth interviewing, and all other methods currently in use.


Under Issues & Campaigns are actions such as:

Oregon Genetically Modified Food Labeling
A successfully [sic] 2002 campaign to defeat a ban to require labeling of all genetically modified foods. We worked on behalf of a coalition of farmers, grocers and food manufacturers for whom the proposed bill would have created an excessive cost burden, given the lack of such a requirement throughout the rest of the country.

Dubai implosion beginning?


This situation is interesting.

I have been raving for a while now (in person, to people who will suffer my ravings) that all of the insane building in Dubai was going to implode one day. I don't know a lot about economics, but I subscribe to the radical notion that "bust" follows "boom". Dubai has to be the single largest boom town ever created by man, so when it goes bust, I predicted it would become the largest ghost town on the planet.

But, because I don't know much about economics or finance, I wasn't sure how it would happen, or when.

It appears that time may be now, and the cause our old friend leverage. As this thing unravels, I'll be unsurprised to learn (and by that I mean "Shocked and outraged by this unprecedented betrayal!") of Dubai World's off-the-books debt obligations. Banks are freaking out about getting back what their owed now, but I submit that they have no idea what their exposure actually is - and won't until the implosion is well underway.

So, on my "ghost town" outcome prediction - any bets how this thing actually ends? I'm not sure the UAE will let that actually happen, but I don't know what their options will be. I guess that depends on finding out just how bad the situation really is.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

My favorite exchange from Bilski v. Kappos so far...

From Ars Technica's coverage:
Justice Roberts asked about another hypothetical software case: whether you could patent the process of using a calculator to compute "the historical averages of oil consumption over a certain period and divide it by 2." Stewart responded by drawing a distinction between a calculator with "preexisting functionality" to "crunch numbers" and a computer that "will be programmed with new software" and "given functionality it didn't have before." We'll let readers judge for themselves whether this distinction makes any sense.
I think this is precisely the problem with software patents, and I'm thrilled it was actually brought up.

A more complete treatment of this topic is here.